Either way, I have a slightly different take on the whole thing…

http://myboringbest.blogspot.com/2006/07/on-backs-of-invisible-men.html

Keep up the great blog.
Jim

You can also get run over by a truck. No way to live your life in fear – and condemn better things because of it.

Look, you make some very good points. But there is a sensitivity missing which, I can’t be sure, but I really believe is due to not being a Jewish mother of three kids who lives two miles from a JCC and several synagogues that have two to three municipal police officers in attendance round the clock on Shabbat and driving through the parking lots every day. Seattle can happen here, Russell. Have you been following the Muslim protests that were held downtown to get Cuyahoga County to divest of the Israeli bonds it holds?

You say the majority wants to compromise, not kill or annhilate. I believe that. But let’s look at the numbers. If there are 1 billion Muslims, with 10-15% being radical or extreme jihadists, that’s still 100 to 150 million people. Cut it down by the number of women and children in that number – and I don’t know what that would be. But you are still left with tens of millions of people interested in following people like Hezbollah’s leader and Iran’s president who won’t let me tell his people that I had pizza for dinner tonight – I have to tell them that I had elastic bread, if, as a woman, I’m allowed to speak at all. (yes I’m being sarcastic)

Russell, Lebanon has just under 4 million people, Israel just over 6 million, with at least 10-15% Arab.

Where are you going to find a coherent majority to work with, Russell? You tell me where they are.

I agree about those other countries stepping up – but why haven’t they done so already after ALL THESE YEARS?

Look – I’m not the type to usually shoot down everything. Really – it’s not my usual mode. But the forces at play here are volatile, dynamic (as in not static) and emotional. Throw in the religion and it’s completely unpredictable.

I remember when the IRA disarmed. I admired and envied the situation and I remember thinking, why can’t that happen in the Middle East.

I know the answer today that I didn’t really know or accept at any level back then: Russell, the people who pull the strings, in the minority or not, believe what they are saying and what they are telling others to believe: America is evil, Western culture is Evil, America and England and everyone else who supports Israel is out to change everyone who follows Islam. And so jihad calls for them to get rid of our influence.

You’ve met me Russell. I might be dramatic but I’m not prone to crazy theories. I used to tell my father he was crazy, I used to think clergy were crazy for their unconditional support of Israel. I’ve rejected Zionism as a defining life theory of any type.
None of this is new.

But now, since Seattle in particular, I can see being pushed, pulled whatever you want to call it, into a safe mode that contradicts much of what I want to believe simply out of a desire to survive.

I hope I’m proven to be nuts, Russell. Certainly in our lifetime and my kids. But honestly, I don’t trust that nearly as much as I used to.

There is always going to be bad people in the world who can’t or won’t engage in the political process. Forget them for a second. Let’s talk about the majority. Those are the people you have to reach, talk to, negotiate with, compromise. Once you do that – then the Lebanese, with renewed strength can deal with the remaining jihadi’s as a typical law enforcement/special forces action – as we did with the IRA holdouts – and with the renewed support and help of the people – that old hearts and minds stuff.

The key is to not allow these holdouts to derail the process as it moves along, and they will surely try. That takes leadership and courage, cooperation and a lot of time.

You’re right not to trust AIPAC – a bunch of them are indicted on espionage charges right now. AS for you – you’re sitting in cozy cleveland – no one is going to kill you or your family.

What exactly do you think is going to happen absent a cease fire ? Do you really think IDF can wipe out Hezbollah given enough time and dropping enough bombs, and do so without the crisis expanding into syria ? I’ve studied a lot of conflicts and I honestly cannot name a single one where one side was literally obliterated. Israel doesn’t even have the stomach for that.

All conflicts end in one of two ways basically. Surrender or negotiated settlement. Maybe you and the IDF think Hezbollah is going to surrender – I don’t. They’ll run to ground and reconstitute before doing that if it ever looks like they might be defeated, because this isn’t a war against a sovereign entity. That is what the right fails to understand.

that means negotiated settlement. Negotiate with who ? Seems like Lebanon, Israel, US and Syria (as a proxy for Hezbollah) – with help from countries like Jordan, egypt, UAE etc. Once those members of Hezbollah who won’t settle are marginalized then you can go after them in a targeted approach.

the threat isn’t shrinking because all parties are expanding the violence.

I’m not sure that on a personal basis it could change what I might do if I lived in Israel as a mother with three kids and a spouse and a life and family. But, I’ve also always believed that until you’ve been in a situation, it’s impossible to guess just what you would do. I rule out almost nothing.

I’ve written before about the things I dislike about the Israeli government, about its attitudes. I’m going to be going to hear a speaker being brought in by AIPAC and I’d turned it down initially – why? Because I do not align myself with that group. It is far too right-wing for me and always has been (I had a job opportunity there out of college after I returned from Israel and refused to pursue it because I didn’t support the group). And I’m still shaky about going – it’s a very different mindset than what I’ve developed over the last 25-30 years.

What does that say? Just as you say that someone like you thinking the way you do indicates the seriousness of the problems, likewise, my drift implicates the same. Except for me, Russell, I really do fear for life – it is no longer as abstract. And that changes my perspective.

Sigh – honestly, Russell – do you believe for a minute that the jihadists , wherever they reside, will give up, ceasefire or no ceasefire? Be honest. Aren’t we only buying time? For what? What can happen in that time that would neutralize the threat? I assume you heard about the bear hug between Chavez and the Iranian president?

The threat is not shrinking, Russell. A ceasefire stops the killing, but it won’t necessarily be able to stop much else.

Do you have anything to offer to convince me otherwise? Because I would like to be convinced.

I wouldnt bomb civilian locations where rockets might be, simply because it kills civilians and creates deeper tensions and hatred. This problem cannot be bombed out of. Despite all the bombing so far more rockets are being fired into Israel today than the day they started. That has to tell you something ?!

Like I said, if you WANT a military solution – it’s house to house, evacuations of places like Haifa – and extremely bloody with unknown consequences as to Syria’s reaction and of course Iran’s. Israel has rejected this because it isn’t prepared to accept the high number of IDF casualties – which is an automatic TELL that they know this isn’t a fight for their lives at all.

There is a fantastic book on this type of conflict, whose title and author I forget now – it’s about the tactics used by the Russians at Stalingrad, and how they defeated a superior force – it appears Hezbollah has read this book and implemented the very same tactics. More rubble helps Hezbollah. Their fire power is highly mobile- they’ll get in close to IDF forces to limit the effectiveness of artillery and air power etc.

However it happened – the Lebanese government is now on the “wrong” side. That is a huge step backwards since they are he long term key to solving the crisis.

What got the IRA to disarm was a political process and an abandonment of disproportionally. Like it or not Israel is going to have to accept that Hezbollah has a role in the region – the key is to find a way for that role to be a positive one – they will no more accept annihilation as the Israeli’s.

The only people who can destroy Israel is Israel (Hezbollah certainly doesn’t have that capacity)- and they have started off doing that in fine fashion.

If someone as Pro-Israel as I am is as pissed with them as I am – Israel has some serious problems on its hands because that sentiment is growing amongst its allies

I do appreciate the debate here, but I’m not sure why you think you need to remind me of what you said and that you said it. I remember, and you can link to it for the benefit of others. I’m not arguing here that this is all a shock to me, okay?

I am interested to know why, if you were Israel, you would not bomb the locations from which the rockets are launched. I do not want to speculate on that. And I’d like to know what you would do instead as the rain poured down in your country since Hezbollah has made it clear that it will not honor a ceasefire (although I understand that some info is coming out that it would consider it).

Russell, “we” have not marginalized the Lebanese gov’t into supporting Hezbollah. They’ve done that all on their own, either implicitly or explicitly or with the help of Syrian-backed leaders in the country’s government. Have the sympathetic sentiments increased in the hearts of Lebanese and others? That’s what we’re hearing. But the impotency of that country’s government has existed for decades, Russell. It is nothing new.

Personally? I want the fighting – the death – the bombings that come from both sides to stop. But I want Hezbollah disarmed and de-militarized. If I were Israel, I don’t think I could stop myself from defending my country. Hezbollah doesn’t want me there and they don’t care what they have to do to get me out or make me non-existent. I would indeed consider it fighting for my life and, as horrific as it sounds, if I lived in Israel, I don’t think I could say, sacrifice my child at the hands of a Hezbollah katusha so that no more Lebanese children are killed.

Maybe that’s weak. Maybe you are a better person than I am. But Russell, I’ve lived there, I am Jewish, and I do not want to be annihilated.

I am not familiar enough with the IRA and its struggles. To what do people point in understanding what got them to disarm? Is it anything that would work with Hezbollah?

First let me say that I do not understand how you turn this attack around, that killed women and children, on Hezbollah. I told you the other day this would happen without a ceasefire. Israeli’s MUST accept responsibility for it.

Yes Hezbollah justifies it’s attacks – and those justifications I denounce as much as I do Israeli’s attacking civilian targets. Neither party is acting as a good guy worth defending here – and lack of US leadership is causing a vacuum for all kinds of atrocities to be carried out by BOTH sides.

What would I do if I were Israel ? I certainly wouldn’t be bombing villages and civilian housing, even with good intel that rockets were there. Does this event move Israel any closer to safety ?! Of course not. It moves it further away with each bomb dropped. It is counter productive to a secure Israel.

That is why both sides should be pressured into a cease fire, withdrawal, reconstruction, disarmament and political reform in Lebanon – again as i said the other day.

This problem WILL NOT be solved militarily. The sooner the American and Israeli war hawks understand this, the better for everyone. Now we have marginalized the Lebanese government into supporting Hezbollah ! Well done !

If Israel is convinced, as you seem to be also, that Hezbollah must be repelled from the southern border – the ONLY way to do this is boots on the ground, house to house coupled with an evacuation of Israeli’s from the border towns temporarily – but Israel doesn’t want to suffer mass casualties doing this – so it drops bombs.

Are we really getting closer to solving this crisis or further away ? Israel is losing this war, and will continue to do so until it wakes up to the reality that the problem it faces is political – and that is going to have serious consequences for everyone.