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Jul
19
So says Louis Jacobson, editor of CongressNow, former deputy editor of Roll Call and 11 year veteran of National Journal, in this Stateline column.
Check out the interactive map. After an analysis of that map, Jacobson concludes:
That leaves Ohio and its 20 electoral votes as the kingmaker – again. In the last election, a gritty contest that both sides always expected to be pivotal, the Buckeye State sided with Bush by just 119,000 votes, or 2 percent of votes cast.
Next year, Ohio political experts agree the Democrats will start from a much better position than they had in 2004. In the 2006 midterms, the state shifted markedly in the Democrats’ direction with the election of Ted Strickland (D) as governor. Strickland’s win, plus victories in several other statewide races, stemmed largely from an onslaught of public disaffection with the scandal-plagued administration of Republican Gov. Robert Taft and was a major breakthrough for the state’s once-dormant Democratic Party.
If a single reason justifies Democratic optimism right now, it is that public disapproval of Bush and the unpopularity of the Iraq War are pushing the national winds in the party’s favor. That makes it easier to imagine on-the-bubble red states shifting to blue than to imagine tenuous blue states shifting to red. Either way, don’t bet the farm. There’s lots of Campaign 2008 left to play out.
Rocket science? Not rocket science?
By Jill Miller Zimon at 2:05 pm July 19th, 2007 in Politics
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[...] prescient as much as typical of Ohioans being slow to accepting, let alone desiring change. Still, Louis Jacobson of Congress Now said Ohio would matter regardless of when we held our primary and I tended to think the [...]