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Feb
9
This Dayton Daily News story focuses on how much money is about to be spent on political advertising in Ohio.
Between now and the Nov. 4 election, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent by political parties, candidates and independent groups trying to sway Ohio voters in the presidential race, said Ohio Republican Party Deputy Chairman Kevin DeWine.
Ohio Democratic Party Chairman Chris Redfern predicted that at least $50 million will be spent on the Democratic side alone.
But in what’s almost a throw-away closer, DeWine is quoted saying,
DeWine retorted [to Redfern's suggestion that Ohio Dems will pick up at least two of four currently GOP-held congressional seats] that he thinks his party will hold those seats and Republican Jim Trakas has a shot at upsetting U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Cleveland, in a Democratic stronghold because Kucinich has been too busy running for president.
Hmm – but what if Trakas’ opponent isn’t Kucinich but rather Joe Cimperman? Or Rosemary Palmer? Or Barbara Anne Ferris? Or Tom O’Grady?
By Jill Miller Zimon at 1:30 pm February 9th, 2008 in Campaigning, Elections, Government, Jim Trakas, Joe Cimperman, Ohio, Politics, Voting
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15 Responses to “DeWine assumes it’s Trakas v. Kucinich, but what if it’s v. Cimperman?”
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It won’t be Cimperman, Palmer, Ferris, or O’Grady. And Dennis will again garner over 60% when he faces the GOP in November. He knows how to win.
Thanks for the prediction. Any numbers for the primary?
I would say Dennis will get 45% in the primary. Hardly a mandate but it will be enough to get him by. Cimperman 25% and the rest split between everyone else.
Cimperman does have the advantage of getting younger voters to the polls with the ‘Obama’ factor. I think people under 40 are misguided about Dennis from reading the PD’s constant bashing and if the turnout numbers are extremely large he may have a chance to upset Dennis. As a Dennis fan, I hope that doesn’t happen. But as a political junkie, it would be interesting to see what Dennis would do if he were to get unseated. Run as an independent.. that would unnerve the establishment to no end.
I think that the future of the 10th is Elizabeth. You may laugh, but I think she is eyeing up that seat after he leaves…
An aside: Hope you are recovering from your bad back, Jill.
Thanks for the wishes on the back – the cortisone hasn’t kicked in just yet but I am up and around.
As for the 10th, well, you are right – as a political junkie, we love this stuff. I don’t know if I’d be as sure about a Dennis win but I really do not know that district that well. I think Cimperman and Palmer too are really going to cut into his support. I’d love to see a poll come out.
I live in the 10th and have worked and spent a lot of time in all parts of the district. Lakewood and Slavic Village (at least when I worked there 5 years ago) were full of Dennis signs. His office really helps people and that goes a long way when its comes to election time. If you have a problem, they bend over backward to help and thats why he has such a “cult following”. I have never had to call the Congressman myself but my father always tells a story how my aunt and uncle (who are hard core Republicans) got instant help from the Kucinich Administration when he was the Mayor with a car that had been “fixed” by a shady repairman. It was literally in less than 24 hours that their problem was resolved. That type of service is not easily forgotten.
Cimperman is carpetbagging. My sister personally knows Ferris and says she is not fit for the job. That won’t play well when more people find out I think O’Grady has a good future ahead of him and is just getting his name out with this race. I honestly don’t get the deal with Palmer. Dennis bent over backward for her…
Well – the carpetbagging charge – let’s talk about that for one minute, okay? Because it fascinates me. Ohio allows people who run for congress to just have to live in Ohio, not in the particular district for which they’re running. Don’t we only have ourselves to blame for such carpetbagging?
The other thing – I’m told – he just lives across the street from the 10th district.
None of this is in defense of him – I’ve written before that I really didn’t like/haven’t liked some of his tactics.
But let’s talk about how real these issues are, as a matter of who is the best representative for the district.
I think you are very, very safe when you talk about constituent services. I’m really not sure what else is more important, if anything. Do you think that the constituents love him for his presidential runs just so they can look up to him, so long as they get their needs met?
If it’s Trakas vs. Ferris, Trakas wins.
If it’s Trakas vs. Palmer, Trakas wins.
If it’s Trakas vs. Kucinich, Kucinich wins.
If it’s Trakas vs. Cimperman, Cimperman wins somewhat narrowly (~10%).
If it’s Trakas vs. O’Grady, I’d actually favor Trakas there.
The outcome of these matchups isn’t too hard to predict. OH-10 is a safe Democratic district. But even then, a perennial candidate like Ferris would lost and a cashless Palmer would as well. Not that they have a good chance of winning the primary, anyway.
Mike DeWine is a political animal and realizes that a fractured primary like this always favors the incumbent. In big cities with healthy Democratic machines, when a challenger announces his/her candidacy against an incumbent, the machine often plants another challenger to split up the anti-incumbent vote. I don’t think this is what happened here but it will be the same outcome.
Hi Brian – I think you meant Kevin DeWine?
Also-even though your blog doesn’t seem to get active except for a few months now and then, I’ve added you to the blogroll for Politics-Ohio.
I think you’re probably close but I wouldn’t underestimate Palmer, if she wins the nomination. I’ll be interested to see if anyone drops out before 3/4, but I bet no one will. The percentages that each Dem will garner is going to be so low – I hope they at least get good turnout.
Yes, Kevin DeWine, sorry.
It’d be interesting to see how Obama/Clinton supporters split on Kucinich or his challengers. We’ll never know of course but it’d be interesting to see which group will support Kucinich in larger numbers.
Hmm – I wonder if they are even related?
Kevin DeWine is Mike DeWine’s nephew.
LOL – no no – not that way – I knew they were related.
What I meant was, I wonder whether the voting for Kucinich will be related in any meaningful way to votes for Obama or Clinton.
Haha, sorry.
Well, I expect Hillary to carry OH-10 comfortably. The blue collar communities should serve her well: Parma, Brooklyn, West Park, Lakewood, etc., etc.
Those also tend to be Kucinich’s base of a support. A Hillary supporter is likely also a Kucinich supporter.
Btw, I did a breakdown of Hillary vs. Obama in each Congressional district on my blog. That’s how I see the whole thing shaping up. Hard to handicap though, close races are fun.
Thanks, Brian – I’ve posted an entry with a link. Now do it for the GOP.