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Feb

17

The Economist: Democratic nomination for president is Obama’s to lose


The Economist does a down and dirty recap of where the competition to earn the Democratic Party members’ nomination to be the candidate for president in 2008 stands right now.  It’s fair and accurate, except for its name-calling.  That crap needs to stay out of venerable publications like The Economist.

The comparison of where they are now:

Mr Obama has not only solidified his hold over his core constituents—blacks, the young, independents and educated white liberals. He has driven a truck into Mrs Clinton’s coalition. In Virginia he won 52% of the white vote to Mrs Clinton’s 47%, 54% of the (admittedly small) Latino vote to Mrs Clinton’s 46%, 55% of people 65 and over to Mrs Clinton’s 45%. He won every income group handily.

…

[The turmoil in Clinton's campaign] is significant for more than the obvious reason that it is dangerous to switch key staff in the middle of a campaign. It suggests that Mrs Clinton underestimated the challenge posed by Mr Obama. She expected everything to be wrapped up by Super Tuesday, and is now putting together her campaign on the fly. It also undermines her claim to be a CEO-type figure who will be ready to run the country on day one. Mr Obama has run a steadier campaign. He has consistently out-organised and out-planned his rival.

The Economist writes, however, that Clinton has three things on her side that might derail the inevitable:

1. Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania

At least one in three of Democratic voters in Texas will be Latino, a group that has favoured Mrs Clinton in the past. Mrs Clinton is ahead in the polls in Ohio, a classic blue-collar state, by almost 20 points. These two vote on March 4th. Much of Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22nd, is also Clinton-friendly, and the popular governor, Ed Rendell, is working hard on her behalf. Between them, the three states choose 492 delegates.

2.  Time

Mr Obama’s message of “change” and “hope” is becoming a little tiresome. As he becomes the front-runner, media scrutiny is bound to intensify. And Mrs Clinton will take every opportunity, not least in two forthcoming debates, to attack him on substance, particularly about national security and the economy. Is Mr Obama tough enough to stand up to John McCain on security (security-minded voters tend to favour Mrs Clinton by a wide margin)? Is he experienced enough to save the economy from free-fall?

3.  The quirks of the delegate race

Even if Mr Obama wins every contest from now on by a five-point margin he will not gain the magic number of pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination. The Clintons are lobbying the superdelegates furiously. They are even prepared to push hard to seat the “ghost delegates” from Florida and Michigan in the convention. These are delegates elected in those states in primaries held in defiance of party rules (and hence not recognised by the party). Mr Obama’s name did not appear on Michigan’s ballot.

As an ear-witness to Harold Ickes’ conference call yesterday, there’s no question that the push on all three variables is on.  Whether it will make a difference and how voters will view that push, and whatever results come from the push, I have no idea.

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 9:31 am February 17th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Campaigning, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Media, Ohio, Politics, Primary, WH2008 

Comments

2 Responses to “The Economist: Democratic nomination for president is Obama’s to lose”

  1. 1 Ben on February 17th, 2008 6:10 pm

    I agree that the momentum has shifted, but she is not out of this at all. Never forget she is a Clinton, so it isn’t over until it is over.

  2. 2 Jill Miller Zimon on February 17th, 2008 9:59 pm

    I agree with you – I think it’s a complete toss up. Voters are NOT ready to be read like a book or written off as being in one camp or another to the extent that the race is over. Frankly, I don’t think VOTERS want the race to be over until everyone has voted. And I think that’s a great thing. It’s really how it should be and it suits all the states that moved up their primaries! lol

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