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Mar
21
Read the poll here. Margin of error is +/- 4.5 for all respondents (registered Dems), +/- 5.7 for likely Dem voters.
From its summary:
The March 2008 Franklin and Marshall College Poll suggests that Hillary Clinton has regained the solid advantage she held over Barack Obama prior to February. Clinton leads Obama by 16 points among likely Democratic primary voters, 51% to 35%. Her lead among likely Democratic primary voters has doubled since the February 2008 poll, conducted February 13-18, when her advantage was seven points, 44% to 37% (see Figure 1). Mrs. Clinton leads among voters in virtually every demographic group, with the exceptions being non-whites and voters in Philadelphia (see Tables A-1 and A-2). The February survey showed the potential for a considerable amount of change in the race, but the March survey [which was taken from March 11-16] shows a less volatile environment. Fewer than one in seven (13%) likely voters is currently undecided, and most (85%) are “certain” about their vote choice, up from 72 percent in February. [my emphasis]
I’m not sure what to conclude, but it seems to me that each state so far, and we’re now past the half-way point of primaries and caucuses, has struck out on its own and defied following any pattern.
More here from Political Punch.
By Jill Miller Zimon at 10:45 pm March 21st, 2008 in Politics
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7 Responses to “F&M Poll of PA Democrats: Clinton doubles lead, has lower unfavorables than Obama”
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Every state has had their own trends. PA just sets up for her well from a dempographic sense.
I tend to agree with that, but demographics, or as others put it, “the census” isn’t all. I think that’s overly simplistic – not saying you are saying only that, just putting in my two cents on that aspect.
Thanks, Ben.
This poll was taken during the heat of the continuous Wright video loops and prior to “the speech.”
I wouldn’t count on Clinton’s lead holding at this level.
The only poll that has come out taken after tuesday shows a definite Obama “recovery.” However that was a national poll, how it plays in Altoona may be different.
I think we will see her do just fine in PA.
Joe and Jason – the numbers seem to indicate that Clinton will win PA but it also seems that Obama or Obama supporters are make solid efforts on the ground to make an impact.
Anyone know how the delegates are divvied up in PA?
I think that it is proportional and done on a district level.
Thanks, Jason.