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Sep
12
I suggested that this is not a happening thing in Ohio two weeks ago when I wrote about my belief that Republican candidate for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, might be seen as the face of feminism by some people, but to me, if that’s true, then you swap her out for the soul of feminism:
…does anyone honestly believe that the GOP – or anyone else – will now and forever come forward and offer leadership roles to women with the exact same modicum of experience as Palin, and ask them to bring it on and challenge and get support from those ahead of them when they do challenge?
For example:
Bobby Jindal, age 37, newly elected Louisiana governor – which women would the GOP support against him?
Kevin DeWine – would the Ohio GOP support any female Republican with the resume of a Sarah Palin against him?
John Boehner – the Ohio GOP going to support small-town Ohio female GOP mayors against him?
Or Chris Redfern, the Ohio Democratic Party chair – any women being supported right here right now for that job? I know many women who have as much experience as he has, certainly in comparison to the Palin Pick over the other VP potentials.
If Sarah can be selected over numerous individuals like Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, why not other small-town mayors with the same experience as Palin over individuals like those named above, for far less sweeping roles than vice president?
Well, now Political Science 216 has written that he thinks Ohio State Auditor Mary Taylor is going to run for governor against current Ohio Governor Ted Strickland in 2010. He points to what he sees as an obvious contrast between her tough words about Strickland’s recent budget cut announcement and the AP’s report that Senate President Bill Harris and House Speaker Jon Husted were, in PS216’s opinion “calm” and “would work with the governor to make sure the state remains fiscally sound.”
State Auditor Mary Taylor, also a Republican, had the harshest words for Strickland’s budget management, criticizing him for using short-term accounting actions instead of substantively reforming the budget. “Governor Strickland’s plan is not making real progress toward putting Ohio’s fiscal house in order,” said Taylor, who suggested conducting state agency performance audits.
Then, PS 216 writes:
It makes total sense. She was at McCain’s rollout of Sarah Palin in Dayton last week. Mary sees that Sarah Palin is 270 Electoral College votes and a heartbeat away from being President. Mary is smarter than Palin, has more experience, is not only not from a pretend state but an actual swing state, and is more attractive. If Mary plays her cards right, she’s thinking, she could be VP soon. But she has to become Governor first.
Stay with me here.
Who’s going to beat her? Kevin Coughlin? Jon Husted? No, no. And don’t give me John Kasich. John Kasich is currently making a living hosting “The Factor” when Bill O’Reilly is on vacation. Not going to cut it.
Mary also spent some time this week trying to fan the flames of the “Lipstick on a Pig” pseudo-controversy. The old Mary would have never done that. But the new Mary did.
I didn’t mention Husted, Kasich or Coughlin in my post two weeks ago but I gotta wonder – are they going to move aside for her? I’d love to be in on the conversations going on within the GOP about that.
Because frankly, Mary would probably make an excellent GOP candidate, better than all the other previously named GOP hopefuls.
The watch to see which male “rising stars” will move away for a woman continues.
By Jill Miller Zimon at 7:40 am September 12th, 2008 in Campaigning, Gender, Government, Ohio, Politics, Republicans, Sarah Palin, Statehouse, Ted Strickland, leadership
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22 Responses to “Will Ohio’s male GOP gatekeepers step aside for Mary Taylor?”
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Jill,
I would be absolutely shocked if Taylor ran for Governor in 2010. The auditor is one of the apportionment board seats. As an incumbent, and otherwise qualified for the position, Taylor will be the favorite in that race in 2010. She won the seat in 2006, when every other statewide GOPer lost.
So, why would the Republicans potentially give up that board seat to run her for governor? The Republicans are looking to hold onto that seat, and hopefully win the gov. and SOS races in order to retain control of the apportionment board. Why be the challenger in three races rather than just two?
Taylor’s still young, and if Strickland should win in 2010, if Taylor’s still auditor, she likely becomes the GOP frontrunner in 2014.
Greg – that IS a good point, however – is she younger or older than Husted, Kasich, K. DeWine or Keven Coughlin? Regardless of her age, you are, kinda sorta yes? Deflecting here – the question is – would they make room for her, change their ambition’s course, or just run that course right with her as she runs hers?
THAT is what I see as the question the GOP must face in a way I think they haven’t had to before – in GOP women are serious about using Palin as an example.
I think she’s right around the same age as Husted, DeWine, and Coughlin. I think about ten years younger than Kasich.
I think it’s too speculative at this point to determine what would happen given the current state of affairs.
Husted wants to run for SOS, and if he and Taylor were to both win in 2010, she’d be term limited in 2014 and he’d still have a term to go. She would have the leg up then for advancement.
DeWine will be chair of the party, and as part of the deal to become chair, he won’t be running for office while chair. So, I don’t see any conflict there.
Taylor has already been pushed ahead of Coughlin as the rumor is that he wanted to run for auditor in 2006 (and if he had run, I think he would’ve lost to Sykes), but she got the nod instead.
As I said, I think it’s too speculative to determine what might happen at this point.
Thanks, Greg – again – you have a much better scan of all that than I tend to have, at least on the GOP side. And for the record, as I did mention in that two week old post, I speculate about the same thing with the ODP and Chris Redfern – for all the women we have in local gov’t and the statehouse, where are they on the statewide scene? Jennifer Brunner is key and as you know, I’m a fan of hers for the most part. But who else is there? I hope they are on top of that too.
Thanks for the input.
Well, if things had turned out just a little differently in 2006, we could’ve had Brunner as SOS, Taylor as auditor, Montgomery as AG, O’Brien or Jeanette Bradley as treasurer, and Padgett as Lt. Gov. Granted, that probably wouldn’t have been to your liking politically
, but under that scenario females would’ve been a majority of the statewide offices.
In addition, if Sutherland should win this year (which I highly doubt, as I’ll be surprised if she cracks 40% of the vote), I think she could be viewed as a potential statewide in the next decade.
As to whether the state parties are on top of it, well, if they’re not, they’re not doing their job.
True – all that – I’m not sure because I haven’t checked lately, but is the GOP indeed losing all women in the state senate or will there be one? See – Bill Harris’ response to that, in my opinion, has been horridly slow and reactionary.
Look – I am sincere when I say that I’m THRILLED that my friends who are right of center get to have female candidates for political office. I would only suggest that they be qualified, quality and someone they would support regardless of gender. It’s the pipeline – there’s no reason why women who are Republican shouldn’t have women become political leaders, it’s absurd to think otherwise.
I really look to the day when all this nonsense of about men and women in politics is completely moot – but I don’t believe that will happen until we stop making parenting and so called “family values” that in the past leaned heavy on traditional families meaning that women tended to the kids the fall guy.
I’d say its more about the best person winning the primary, not the gender. Right?
I already responded to your prior post on this topic, so let me just add a little more commentary.
PS 216 is incorrect about Mary Taylor having more experience than Sarah Palin. Taylor’s prior experience was in the legislative branch, while Palin’s mayoral experience is in the executive branch. Palin and Taylor arrived in the state executive branches at the same time, but Palin is chief executive, while Taylor is not.
When talking about possible entries into the gubernatorial race, Rob Portman and Betty Montgomery are also possibilities, especially Montgomery. Montgomery wanted the governor’s office last time around, but stepped out as Blackwell and Petro both came up short. If Montgomery makes a run for it this time, I don’t see her stepping aside for the others.
Let’s be clear about this point: If Taylor or Montgomery decides to run for the governor’s office, they don’t need the male GOP contenders to step aside–they are capable of squashing them. I’m surprised, Jill, that you feel they would need men to roll over and play dead for Taylor or Montgomery to succeed.
Daniel – I’m not saying this and I can’t figure out why you’d spin it like I am: “I’m surprised, Jill, that you feel they would need men to roll over and play dead for Taylor or Montgomery to succeed.”
They are politicians who’ve behaved in ways that make their ambitions obvious. I want to see how they do in a field that has a full compliment of the qualified people.
Jason – you’ve asked a question you know the answer to but for the record, of course.
The issue I’m raising is the party structure, the networking that goes on. If someone doesn’t have access, they don’t get to have the talks and chats and connections and support that is often though not always necessary to moving head. Given the way in which men have dominated the political party structure in the major two parties in Ohio, my speculation is reasonable. Other people may not share it or care – and that’s fine.
It intrigues me.
” . . . I gotta wonder – are they going to move aside for her?”
That’s not spin. That’s what you wrote.
Um, yes – is that a problem? I’m not understanding. I am speculating if any of the aforementioned candidates who are not Mary Taylor and are names mentioned as speculative GOP candidates for Governor would run against her or decide that she’s the better candidate.
Is there a problem with that?
AH – ok – you translate “move aside” as being the same as “roll over and play dead.”
Yeah – no – moving aside isn’t the same as rolling over and playing dead in my opinion. Though depending on the context – you never know.
Taylor and Montgomery do not need men to move aside in order to succeed. Taylor and Montgomery can succeed on their own merits. How’s that? Did I parse it better for you?
Daniel – you don’t want to phrase in the same terms I’m phrasing it – whatever.
You are saying that your speculation is that the others would not withdraw, they would stay in a primary against her and she has the ability to beat them.
I think you are 100% correct – the issue I’m raising isn’t about that. The issue I’m raising has to do with the traditionally accepted belief that not having a contested primary is the best case scenario.
I am speculating as to whether that CW will hold should Taylor want to run for gov, and in that speculation, I’m asking – will Taylor be able to garner enough support prior to a primary to convince others to not run and see her as she may see herself – as the strongest candidate, OR will they run a primary with her and then she’ll win? Because you know what – depending on who the Dem gov candidate is AND depending heavily on what she’d be running on (since auditor is quite limited in scope), I’d consider pulling a GOP ticket to support Taylor in a contested match up for GOP gov nomination. She’s that strong.
This is ALL conjecture of course – come on. But you’ve read this blog long enough – I love to know the process – how it all works. And that’s what I’m focusing on and I believe you know that.
Jill,
Sarah Palin beat Governor Frank Murkowski in a GOP primary then went on to beat former Governo Tony Knowles in November of 2006 to get that governorship.
She has gotten to where she is with toughness and grit.
Frank Murkowski and Tony Knowles didn’t step aside for Sarah, she ran them over. Same could be said about her running over Ridge, Liberman, Romney, Huckabee, etc. for the veep spot.
This post isn’t about Sarah Palin and her trajectory – as you’ve outlined. I’ve never taken issue with how she got where she got – not once.
This post is about how glass shattering her appointment by the McCain campaign to the position of GOP VP nominee will be for other races on a local and state level. That’s what I wrote two weeks ago – that’s what I’m speculating about here.
I, myself, would prefer to see Taylor run for re-election as State Auditor. But I’m not the one who makes decisions for Taylor. Taylor will make her own decision.
As for clearing the path for an unopposed primary, that’s a bit tricky, and the reason behind it is Bob Taft.
In the past, there seemed to be an acknowledged pecking order of who’s turn it was to be the gubernatorial candidate. Blackwell wanted to run for Ohio Governor after serving a term as Ohio Treasurer, but he was told that it was Taft’s turn, so Blackwell was coaxed into running for Ohio Secretary of State.
Letting Taft take his turn was a mistake. I think 80% of Ohioans would agree with me about that.
Since then, nobody is going to move aside because it’s somebody else’s turn. No more taking turns. That’s why Montgomery, Blackwell, and Petro all jumped into the 2006 gubernatorial race. Montgomery stepped out to contest the AG primary, so even though she thought the gubernatorial race was too crowded, she didn’t find an uncontested primary of her own to run in. Neither Blackwell nor Petro were willing to step aside for the other, so the primary race went down to the wire.
No one is cognizant of a clearcut hierarchy within the party, and the GOP losses of 2006 only compound the matter of whose “turn” it might be. Each potential statewide primary candidate will try to make the case that they hold the key to capturing the hearts of disenchanted voters, and, since rhetoric alone can’t decide the matter, the only evidence to support their claims will be the one who gets more votes in the primary.
Uncontested primaries would require a top-down, political boss approach. Rank-and-file Republicans in Ohio, though aren’t happy with that approach because it produced Bob Taft. Therefore, a bottom-up, grass-roots approach has challenged the status quo, Bob Bennett has made his exit, and the Ohio GOP is still a bit amorphous at this point. That’s why we might see contested primaries in 2010 just like we saw in 2006.
Uh yes, they would support someone with a resume like Sarah Palin over someone like Kevin Dewine, because that person has been governor.
Ben – so – just to be clear, you believe that Mary Taylor has as much experience or comparable experience to Sarah Palin and that that makes Taylor easy to support over DeWine, for governor as the GOP candidate?
Jill,
Great post, but I feel I must take you behind the GOP curtain to see why Mary Taylor has had such a hard time getting traction within the GOP for things like Governor or Senator.
You will probably not believe me here, but I really very much believe it to be the truth.
First, it has absolutely zero, zip, nil, nada to do with the fact that she is a woman. It really does not.
To put it simply: Mary wants a job better than the one she currently has, but she does not want to do the work necessary to attain it.
I am in no way begrudging her for wanting to be Governor or US Senator nor am I begrudging her for her life choices (i.e. spending a lot of time with her family, a lot of time staying in shape and whatever time is left for running the Auditor’s office). For someone that wants to keep running for down-ticket office that is a great recipe for doing just that, but if she wants to be Governor or Senator then she is going to have to work for it just like anyone else.
She wants a “hand out” instead of a “hand up” and taking that mindset is never going to get her where she wants to go. She is going to have to make personal sacrifices to take her career to the next level.
Is that fair? Probably not. Does it suck that that is the reality of the current state of affairs in Ohio politics? Definitely. But, that is the reality of her situation.
She is going to have to build the relationships with both the grassroots and donor communities within the Republican Party in at least 40-50 of the 88 counties to be in a position to be deemed viable.
Her current approach of “do a decent job, spend time with family, work out a lot, etc” is not going to get her there.
We do not coronate kings and queens. We usually do not have to court people to run for Gov or Senate because people are usually fighting over it, but this year might be an exception with Gov if Kasich bows out.
If she ever does the necessary work then I think she will be in a great position to run for higher office, but if she does not then she will continue to have tepid support at best.
The only other thing that she has working against her is that there is the perception that Arshinkoff controls her. Frankly, I think Alex is a pretty smart guy so personally my thoughts on that are “whatever”, but there are a number of people within the GOP that are very, very nervous about Mary advancing to a position of higher power and the ability to dole out more goodies to her friends if Alex truly does control her.
Put those two things together and you have what I believe are the real reasons as to why Mary Taylor has not gotten any traction (and may continue to not get any traction in the future if changes do not occur) when her name comes up in regards to an office higher than Auditor of the great state of Ohio.
Kyle Sisk
http://www.kylesisk.typepad.com
P.S. Thanks for your great comments on my blog. I very much appreciate it!!!
[...] but it was used to get to this blog last night and the post that came up was a 9/08 post about whether Ohio’s pale male GOP contingent would move aside for State Auditor and… the way potential McCain VP options moved aside or had to stand to the side, for Sarah [...]