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Oct

6

New numbers show Obama pulling away in Ohio


Today, Democracy Corps came out with numbers showing that Barack Obama is emerging as the leader in Ohio:

On the heels of the news that John McCain permanently suspended his campaign in economically strapped Michigan, its southern neighbor Ohio now favors Barack Obama over McCain 49 to 43 percent, a lead built on an impressive 48 to 35 percent edge among independent voters. McCain’s attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio as by 24 points, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer and by 18 points, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change. And in a state where the economy is king, Obama’s aggressive positioning of the economic contrast with McCain has produced an 11-point Obama lead on which candidate will do a better job on the economy.

Well, surprise, surprise, on the day John McCain announced that Sarah Palin was his VP choice, I wrote this:

I have to say that if voters, independents in particular, couldn’t vote for a woman in Clinton? I don’t know how they can vote for Palin.

Just a few days later, I enumerated additional reasons for why I saw the pick as a miscalculation, and stated one Ohio-related reason:

Which brings me to a fourth reason, which, living in Ohio, I’ve seen played out: Rural v. urban. The population centers of this country are still in the urban areas, which happen to be the areas that tend to vote Democratic and tend to have a lot of newly registered voters this year. There is absolutely nothing Gov Palin has said that would intrigue a city dweller to believe that Gov Palin knows about or cares about the urban dweller’s needs or desires. Now – maybe she does – but as a voter, what has she told us?

And here is analysis by Democracy Corps to the same effect:

In addition to the 13-point lead with independent voters, Obama builds his lead on performing above partisan trends in the Columbus area and Northeastern Ohio, matching Democratic partisanship in the heavily Democratic Cuyahoga County. He slightly underperforms in the Cincinnati-Dayton corridor, while underperforming in the heavily white, less educated southeastern and northwestern parts of the state.

I attribute Obama’s push forward in Ohio to the enormous numbers of individuals making calls and talking face to face on behalf of the Obama campaign.  They are fighting and fighting hard to win in every corner of the state, as they should.  Ohio is a swing state because it has a tough complex of issues, and has, for a long time.  It requires investment in time and understanding, not just superficial unveilings like McCain’s unveiling of Sarah Palin on August 29.

How long ago does that seem?

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 1:54 pm October 6th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Campaigning, Elections, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Poll, Predictions, Sarah Palin, Vice President, Voting, WH2008 

Comments

4 Responses to “New numbers show Obama pulling away in Ohio”

  1. 1 Rob in Michigan on October 6th, 2008 6:01 pm

    For anyone who isn’t stridently partisan:

    I always think of Ohio as very much like Michigan… a state who is suffering due to the economy and has the same basic mix of industrial jobs (that are vanishing) and farmland (that are small growers, and ergo suffering). If this is true, I wonder why McCain would have any more success there than here? If different, I would love a ‘crash course’ education in how.
    And as an OT aside… why is Indiana so different from Michigan and Ohio? (i.e. Leaning McCain when we are leaning Obama?)

  2. 2 Jill Miller Zimon on October 6th, 2008 8:41 pm

    Hi Rob – thanks for reading and commenting.

    I know exactly what you mean re: the similarities between Michigan and Ohio. Here’s what I think is different though: the southern and southeastern portions of the state that borders on Kentucky, W. VA. The Appalachian terrain and related industries and rural nature of the areas have, I think, really created a community very unlike a lot of other parts of Ohio. Although absolutely there are many parts of Ohio that are unique from one another. But I think they are also unique from Michigan and part of what makes Ohio different from MI when it comes to voters.

    As for Indiana, it’s so funny you say that because I was thinking that just yesterday. I don’t know – I’ve not talked to anyone about it, or read much on it, but I would think again that the industries that came to be and are currrently the ones that Indianans rely on have something to do with the difference between Indiana and Ohio. Again, terrain and the distance from water and major metropolitan areas – these have to have something to do with it, don’t you think?

  3. 3 Anon on October 6th, 2008 11:09 pm

    And Rasmussen shows Sen. McCain leading Sen. Obama 48% to 47% in Ohio in a survey conducted on October 5. The Democracy Corps poll was done September 29-October 1.

  4. 4 Rob in Michigan on October 10th, 2008 4:30 pm

    To Jill Zimon:

    Excellent point, re: Ohio. I guess I haven’t “seperated” Ohio into its parts when looking at its political outlook. You’re right… southern Ohio probably has much more in common with Southern sensibilities than northern.
    RE: Indiana… I remain mystified about how they differ so from us, but I’m wondering if they have the same sort of schisms between Southern/Northern parts of their state, or between Rural/City that a more Politco-minded person would be able to explain.

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

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