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Oct

11

Full Ohio Newspaper Poll information available; Mccain-Obama in statistical dead heat

Filed Under Barack Obama, Elections, John McCain, Ohio, Poll, Voting, WH2008 | 7 Comments

The Plain Dealer (Cleveland) political blog, OPENERS, has posted a lengthy article with numerous links to information related to the Ohio Newspaper Poll’s second poll, in a series of three, that scrutinize Ohioans’ preferences in the presidential race. (The poll says that McCain leads 48% to 46% but the ME is -/+3 so it’s statistitacally a dead heat.)

The PD also published this article about Ohio’s demographics, based on the just released The Brookings Institution study on the political geography of Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.

It’s hard to know what to highlight, but the level of interest that people I know outside of Ohio possess for all things related to Ohioans and their politics shocks me – from a university president on the East Coast to a speech pathologist in Seattle to a sports psychologist in NYC.  They all want to know what is up with Ohioans.

So here are a few highlights, as a resident of Ohio for 20 years who has voted primarily for Democrats but occasionally for Republicans at the local level (my mayor, a former state rep, some judges etc.) from the demographics article:

Using data from the federal census and related population studies; elections statistics over the last 20 years; and exit-poll breakdowns to see how specific groups of Ohioans voted, Teixeira and William Frey, a Brookings senior fellow who studies population trends, saw these shifts as significant:

• White workers without college degrees account for 54 percent of Ohio’s eligible voting population. While some of them are union members who vote Democratic, the larger group has tended to vote for Republicans. But “population shifts are eroding that dominance,” the Brookings report says. Their share of the vote dropped 0.2% between 2000 and 2006, while other groups’ grew, and their dominance since 1988 has eroded even more.

• White working-age college graduates account for 16 percent of all eligible Ohio voters, with their number growing by 9 percent between 2000 and 2006. Many who entered that category are young, work in professions rather than as managers, and are liberal — a trend that Teixeira says is tipping their cohort toward Democrats.

• Minorities account for 14 percent of Ohio’s eligible voting population, a 7.3 percent increase. Most of that increase came from Hispanic voters, and their number is much smaller than that of black voters, who make up 10.8 percent of the eligible voting population, according to Brookings. But black voters tend to be Democrats, and Hispanic voters have become less loyal to Republicans.

54 plus 16 plus 14 equals 84%.  Who are the other 16% of eligible voters?  Also, what about registered voters? I would think numbers related to that group would be more relevant.

In any case, if you like data and demographics, the Brookings’ pdfs are for you.  Me? I prefer the anecdotes that come from people I know around the state.

Basically, Ohio is a state that has yet to emerge from economic hard times despite a change in the administration, hope is still high among Democrats, the GOP has been after the governor and the Secretary of State since they won due to their roles in the upcoming apportionment process and the rest of the country will use the electoral result here as a scapegoat for something, no matter who wins.

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 11:21 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Elections, John McCain, Ohio, Poll, Voting, WH2008 | 7 Comments 

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Oct

11

Palin masks command 10x the price of an Obama mask

Filed Under Barack Obama, Holidays, Humor, Joe Biden, John McCain, Sarah Palin, WH2008 | 4 Comments

From one of my favorite Ohio blogs, out of Toledo, Glass City Jungle gives us a great lesson in supply and demand:

Masks of Sarah Palin though are scarce and some people have paid over $177.00 plus shipping to have one. Yet I noticed over at Anytime Costumes that the soon to be released just in time for Halloween Sarah Palin mask retails there at $29.99 but Obama is only $17.99 (same as McCain) which is two dollars less than Bill Clinton who’s priced at the low, low price of $19.99. And what about Joe Biden? Evidently no one must want to be Joe for Halloween…

President Bush’s popularity must be waning…he’s priced the same as Nixon at $14.99…

A Hillary Clinton mask, by the way, is going for that same $17.00 as Obama and McCain.  Lucky me, Halloween is on a Friday night – I might let Shabbat trump it this year.

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 10:37 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Holidays, Humor, Joe Biden, John McCain, Sarah Palin, WH2008 | 4 Comments 

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Oct

11

Bush: A man who knows not what he says, literally

Filed Under Economy, Foreign Affairs, George Bush, Government, Housing, Politics | 2 Comments

You know, the irony is painful.  Here is a man who wants to tell us what we should fear (WMDs) but then doesn’t find what it is we’re supposed to fear (WMDs) but winds up creating a fearful situation anyway (Iraq as a weak place where Al Qaeda and insurgents can’t be contained).  As well as a man who, for seven years, refuses to discuss the economy as struggling, having red flags or otherwise being shaky until some of the wealthiest and most powerful individuals in this country’s financial industry fail at steering their ships away from greed and instead into literal and figurative bankruptcy.

Why does anyone wonder why it is that no one has confidence, and least of all when he tells us, we should have confidence?

Read this account of what President Bush said at the G7 Summit.  It’s like he’s on another planet. The constant patriarchical tone and wording, the total unitary executive thrust of “trust me.”

As if we have a choice.

I cannot think of a single thing that I have confidence in that originated with George W. Bush.  I know there must be something, maybe more than just one thing.  But damned if I can think of one. How about you?

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 9:12 pm October 11th, 2008 in Economy, Foreign Affairs, George Bush, Government, Housing, Politics | 2 Comments 

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Oct

11

Dayton Daily News endorses Obama

Filed Under Barack Obama, Elections, Endorsements, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Voting, WH2008 | 1 Comment

In a very thorough review of the strengths and weaknesses of John McCain and Barack Obama, the Dayton Daily News concludes that Obama is a “brilliant young man offering a new generation of leadership” and the better choice for president. Here’s why:

The nation’s moment of choice arrives even as some sort of new era has arrived in the realm of the economy. The problems the nation is obsessed with at this moment are not problems that John McCain has any particular experience with. Neither does Barack Obama.

But in a time of change, Sen. Obama is the more promising leader. With his agile mind, often pitch-perfect judgment and preternatural calm and self-confidence, he seems built for the job of sorting through this thing, if anybody can.

The nation faces a choice that looks more and more like a choice between the future and the past. It has never been one to shrink from the future.

Some of the specifics: Read more

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 8:12 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Elections, Endorsements, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Voting, WH2008 | 1 Comment 

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Oct

11

Seen in Ohio: Presidential political yard signs go negative

Filed Under Barack Obama, Campaigning, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Sarah Palin, WH2008 | 6 Comments

Maybe this sounds petty, but this afternoon, shlepping one of my kids to and from a music lesson, I saw two political yard signs in front of a residence.  The home is one a fairly busy two-lane road that goes through many towns, all the way from the city of Cleveland out through many suburbs and into another county which some people might consider the exurbs.  One sign was in the standard McCain/Palin blue background style, but the other? It said “NOBAMA” with a diagonal slash through the “O.”  I can’t recall if it was like this or this.

I got upset.  That sign really bothered me, and still bothers me. I can’t recall ever seeing a sign that sent the message to not vote for a particular candidate.  I’ve seen plenty of “Vote No on Issue #x” or “Vote Against [fill in the issue like "casinos"],” but I can’t recall ever seeing something like the “NOBAMA” sign.  That’s not to say that they aren’t out there or haven’t been out there, but I can’t recall ever seeing one.

Political speech is protected speech and in fact, I just got my own city to repeal an unconstitutionally restrictive political yard sign ordinance and replace it with a slightly more agreeable one (they upped the number of yard signs from one per household to three), even though I know the conventional wisdom is that yard signs don’t win races. Read more

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 4:10 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Campaigning, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Sarah Palin, WH2008 | 6 Comments 

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Oct

11

Ohio Newspaper Poll: 16% still undecided

Filed Under Barack Obama, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Poll, Predictions, Voting, WH2008 | Comments Off

Is that a record or something? From CQ Politics Poll Tracker Blog:

McCain is leading Obama 48 percent to 46 percent with 16 percent saying they are undecided or might change their mind before election day, according to an Ohio Newspaper Poll, parts of which were released Oct. 11. A link to the poll will be available Sunday. The margin of error is 3 points. Voters favored Obama over McCain on the issue of the economy by 47 percent to 44 percent.

The Poll Tracker has information on every state and includes information from several different polls and on different issues, by state, in many of the synopses.

The Ohio Newspaper Poll is explained in this pdf press release. The gist:

Eight Ohio daily newspapers have joined with the University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research to release THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL, a special initiative to provide unprecedented coverage of the most comprehensive, timely and in-depth Ohio election polling results.

…

The University of Cincinnati’s Institute for Policy Research (UC IPR) will conduct three surveys of likely voters focusing on the key issues that are on the minds of voters this November, including: the economy, healthcare, the environment, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Homeland Security and the presidential candidates’ stances on the issues. THE OHIO NEWSPAPER POLL will use the same likely voter methodology employed by THE OHIO POLL, which is also conducted by the UC IPR.

As for whether 16% undecideds, barely three weeks out, is a record or not, according to the Poll Tracker Blog post data, only two other states are in double-digit undecideds (if you scan all the different numbers posted from various polls from each state): Colorado with 11% and New Mexico with 14%.  Looks like the rest of the states are in the single digit undecideds, primarily in the 3%-6% range, including a few with only 1-2% undecided.  Please correct that if you see otherwise (there are a lot of numbers to parse, a matrix would be nice, hint hint).

Why oh why oh why-oh, Ohio?

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 3:35 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Poll, Predictions, Voting, WH2008 | Comments Off 

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