Print This Post
Oct
11
The Plain Dealer (Cleveland) political blog, OPENERS, has posted a lengthy article with numerous links to information related to the Ohio Newspaper Poll’s second poll, in a series of three, that scrutinize Ohioans’ preferences in the presidential race. (The poll says that McCain leads 48% to 46% but the ME is -/+3 so it’s statistitacally a dead heat.)
The PD also published this article about Ohio’s demographics, based on the just released The Brookings Institution study on the political geography of Ohio, Michigan and Missouri.
It’s hard to know what to highlight, but the level of interest that people I know outside of Ohio possess for all things related to Ohioans and their politics shocks me – from a university president on the East Coast to a speech pathologist in Seattle to a sports psychologist in NYC. They all want to know what is up with Ohioans.
So here are a few highlights, as a resident of Ohio for 20 years who has voted primarily for Democrats but occasionally for Republicans at the local level (my mayor, a former state rep, some judges etc.) from the demographics article:
Using data from the federal census and related population studies; elections statistics over the last 20 years; and exit-poll breakdowns to see how specific groups of Ohioans voted, Teixeira and William Frey, a Brookings senior fellow who studies population trends, saw these shifts as significant:
• White workers without college degrees account for 54 percent of Ohio’s eligible voting population. While some of them are union members who vote Democratic, the larger group has tended to vote for Republicans. But “population shifts are eroding that dominance,” the Brookings report says. Their share of the vote dropped 0.2% between 2000 and 2006, while other groups’ grew, and their dominance since 1988 has eroded even more.
• White working-age college graduates account for 16 percent of all eligible Ohio voters, with their number growing by 9 percent between 2000 and 2006. Many who entered that category are young, work in professions rather than as managers, and are liberal — a trend that Teixeira says is tipping their cohort toward Democrats.
• Minorities account for 14 percent of Ohio’s eligible voting population, a 7.3 percent increase. Most of that increase came from Hispanic voters, and their number is much smaller than that of black voters, who make up 10.8 percent of the eligible voting population, according to Brookings. But black voters tend to be Democrats, and Hispanic voters have become less loyal to Republicans.
54 plus 16 plus 14 equals 84%. Who are the other 16% of eligible voters? Also, what about registered voters? I would think numbers related to that group would be more relevant.
In any case, if you like data and demographics, the Brookings’ pdfs are for you. Me? I prefer the anecdotes that come from people I know around the state.
Basically, Ohio is a state that has yet to emerge from economic hard times despite a change in the administration, hope is still high among Democrats, the GOP has been after the governor and the Secretary of State since they won due to their roles in the upcoming apportionment process and the rest of the country will use the electoral result here as a scapegoat for something, no matter who wins.
By Jill Miller Zimon at 11:21 pm October 11th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Elections, John McCain, Ohio, Poll, Voting, WH2008
Comments
7 Responses to “Full Ohio Newspaper Poll information available; Mccain-Obama in statistical dead heat”
Leave a Reply
2010 WE Magazine 101 Women Bloggers to Watch
Category Specific RSS
Pepper Pike Cleveland+ Politics Women Ohio Elections Law Jewish
by Tips and TricksNews Now
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Trends for Ohio:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html
Obama takes Ohio and rolls to a big electoral college landslide. Take it to the bank.
The Ohio Newspaper Poll describes its methodology as not weighting results based on respondents’ self-identification of political party affiliation. It reports that its respondents identified themselves as 48% Republican, 44% Democrat and 8% Independent.
On August 22, 2008 the Columbus Dispatch reported party affiliations for Ohio’s registered voters as 2.4 million Dems, 1.5 million Repubs and 4.0 million without affiliation.
I am not a professional pollster, but I wonder how the accuracy of the Ohio Newspaper Poll’s results can be evaluated without weighting results based on self-identification of party affiliation, if I have correctly read its description of its methodology.
Steve – thanks for reading and commenting.
Your observation is part of what makes Ohio so swingy. Our semi-open primary system creates difficulty in labeling people as Dem or Republican. For example, it seems as though, while we do disagree on the number of voters who voted for Clinton, definitely some folks who usually pull a GOP ballot for the primary pulled a Dem one this year for Clinton. Now that Obama is the candidate, they may very likely pull a GOP ballot.
And then, when you look at the turnout for the primary, you can see why there are so many millions of unaffiliated – these are folks who haven’t pulled a primary ballot in either two or four years (I forget which it is) and can vote however they wish, crossing or not crossing lines, in the general.
I think it’s better for the voter – why should we care so much about who knows our party affiliation unless we want someone to know?
But for organizing and poll predictions? It’s a nightmate and keeps people guessing.
Steve,
Right on. I looked at the PD this morning and rolled my eyes, especially at the BIG BOLD HEADLINE on the front page: 48-46. I thought – I PAY for this kind of misinformation?
I have always thought the PD caters to its most right wing readers, thanks, of course, to the influence of Kevin O’Brien.
I have a huge problem with this poll – it doesn’t add up and I’m amazed that no one else has caught this – the numbers add up to 101% because at least in my world 48% for McCain 46% for Obama, 1% for Barr, 2% for Nader, 1% for Other and 3% undecided does not equal 100%….
@kegbot: right on. I wonder if the publisher of the PD will allow their editorial page writers to make an endorsement this year, or if he’ll make them pull it like he did in 2004 when they wanted to endorse Kerry.
@LisaRenee #5: most likely rounding error. My problem with the poll is their assumptions about party affiliation. Even with the open primary system we have in Ohio, there is no way either major party comes close to 50%. Even in a good year for the Rs, I doubt 48% of Ohioans would consider themselves Republicans, and this year the Republican brand is in shambles. In a Presidential year, when even the “sometimes or never” voters will turn out, those figures have to be closer to 30% for either party, and the “everyone loves a winner” factor gives the Dems the edge.
@Steve: the 4 million “Independents” cited by the Dispatch no doubt includes a substantial number of newly registered voters who either didn’t vote in the primary or registered after the primary (and have not been “flagged” D or R).
My takeaway is that the methodology is deeply flawed, and the results are not representative of the current electoral sentiment in Ohio.
Chuck Todd of NBC was less than complimentary this morning of this pollster’s historic biases