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Oct

18

Franklin County could be key to Obama win in Ohio


A Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey reveals that in key counties of four swing states, Barack Obama’s numbers look strong and determinative. The counties profiled are: Bucks County, PA; St. Louis County, MO, Prince William County, VA and Franklin County, OH. As noted at the end, the samples were rather small, so keep that in mind.

From Politico:

In Ohio’s Franklin County, the state’s second-most populous county after Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County [where I live], Obama leads by a narrower 45 percent to 40 percent margin. Kerry carried Franklin County 54 percent to 45 percent in 2004.

InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery explained Obama’s success in these areas is a result of his strength among independents and voters between the ages of 30 and 44.

“That is the most angry group of voters that we have this year, with regard to the Republicans,” Towery said. “I see that in almost every poll I look at.”

…

In central Ohio’s Franklin County, [Obama] takes 30-to-44-year-olds by a smaller, but still decisive 49 percent to 34 percent gap, and wins independents, 43 percent to 19 percent.

I’m guessing that the call from MN Congresswoman Michele Bachmann to have legislators to be investigated as to whether they’re anti-American is not going to help the GOP with Independents.

Women:

In Bucks [County, PA], [Obama] has just a 4-point edge with female voters, compared with a 16-point spread in the Columbus, Ohio, area.

Methodology etc.:

The Politico/InsiderAdvantage telephone surveys in St. Louis County and Franklin County were conducted Oct. 13. The St. Louis County survey included 542 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The Franklin survey included 376 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

The Politico/InsiderAdvantage telephone surveys in Bucks County and Prince William County were conducted Oct. 14. The Bucks survey included 320 likely voters and the Prince William survey included 308 likely voters, both with a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percent.

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By Jill Miller Zimon at 3:03 pm October 18th, 2008 in Barack Obama, Elections, Independents, Ohio, Politics, Poll, Republicans, Voting, WH2008, Women 

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