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Nov
2
Walter Shapiro crafted a fascinating article that appears in Salon.com today called, “Overcoming in Ohio.” In his attempt, like so many of us have been making lately, to find the one bellwether that will tell us What Will Happen On Tuesday, Shapiro zeros in on Perry, Ohio. And with good reason:
There is nothing unanimous about politics in Perry County, located about 60 miles southeast of Columbus at the point where Midwestern Ohio gives way to Appalachia. With only 15,000 voters in 2004 (New Lexington, its largest town, has fewer than 5,000 residents), Perry County appears to be a fly speck in a swing state where turnout is expected to exceed 6.5 million.
But Perry County has an uncanny knack for being a political soothsayer. In both the 1988 and 2000 presidential elections — the prior two contests without an incumbent on the ballot — Perry came closest among Ohio’s 88 counties of mirroring the presidential vote. In 2004, Perry County came within 1 percent of matching the George Bush and John Kerry vote margins. The Political Research Center at Suffolk University, which identified the county as a bellwether for its Ohio polls, found that Obama led John McCain by a 45-to-41-percent margin in Perry County in mid-October, relatively close to the survey’s statewide result. “There is a chance that the bellwether model will not work this year because of heavy urban registration in Ohio,” said David Paleologos, the polling director at Suffolk University. “But it has worked in the past.”
Shapiro highlights a few voters, Democrats and GOP, but here’s the one I find to resonate with what I hear over and over, from around the country:
Even though the minority population of Perry County is little more than a few guys who checked the “Hispanic” box on the Census form as a joke, Obama appears to be holding his own in a place where the Ku Klux Klan thrived through the 1920s. Typical of today’s Obama voters is Rick Barnette, a beefy school bus driver with a goatee, who said, “I can’t see myself 10 years ago voting for an African-American like Obama. It was how I was brung up. I’ve seen the Ku Klux Klan pictures.” But now Barnette’s major objection to Obama is that he did not choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate.
Shortly after noon Saturday, Barnette was sitting in the unused keno room at Fiore’s restaurant and bowling alley in New Lexington helping devise schedules for the high-school bowling league. His companion and fellow Obama supporter Mike Shiplett, whose daughter is in the Air Force in Guam, tried to explain the transition in Perry County. “It’s generational,” said Shiplett, who is a self-employed truck driver and the operator of a cleaning service. “People our age are different from our parents. My daughter dated a black guy and he was a hell of a nice guy. Things are changing.”
This is called reality checking. Nothing new-fangled about it. Why people have resisted applying it or following its logical conclusions for so long is the question I always ask. Sometimes, people do have to see it for themselves, and have something in their life so threatened, in reality, that they must consider options they never thought that they would before – like voting for an African-American, because the reality of not voting for him means four more years of what we’ve got right now.
And the reality of that possibility is what McCain is really shadow-boxing in Ohio.
By Jill Miller Zimon at 9:03 am November 2nd, 2008 in Barack Obama, Campaigning, Economy, Elections, George Bush, John McCain, Ohio, Politics, Social Issues, WH2008
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10 Responses to “Focus on Ohio: Why it’s a battle at all for McCain”
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all McCain has to do is stay white and it is visible from his stump speeches
It saddens me to think that a persons’ skin color is still used to define them.I would hope that intelligence(or LACK of)would be of more consideration.
Rawdawg – thanks for the links. I’ve just read the first one. jimi izrael was in on a live blog I did of the Obamamercial last week and I think he’s feeling something similar.
You can shoot me down, it’s okay and I know it might be coming, but what do you think about the increase in minority voter turnout in addition to the malaise with GOP voters? Not enough, not real, not to be trusted? What?
Rawdawg – ok – read the other one. Totally get it – let me say why: being Jewish, I get/we get the same thing – think Abramoff and now the financial bailout. Many other examples. Again, something I was saying to jimi in the live-blog – that there’s a well-known fear among many Jews that we don’t want to get to be too successful because then what happens? there’s attention given to it – like Roots gave attention to what we’ve ignored or didn’t know because of being ignorant.
It’s a double-edged sword but it’s hard to support staying silent, even though I confess, I have from time to time too.
Not sure what’s the right thing to do, best thing to do and I think those aren’t necessarily the same.
mccain is in OHIO when you have voted for bush 92 percent of the time he took OHIO for granted his run mate he only talk to one time and he pick her over all the better canidates but he was counting on her bring in the women voters and the middle class he made the people think she was this big reformer but he didn’t tell you she don’t have the smart to run 50 states let on her own state he would have you believe that under Obama taxes will be raise on middle class america but he didn’t tell you he really don’t have a econmy bill he want to frighten you into voting for him and how he will take care of you but what he didn’t tell he will have to raise taxes if he’s elected it the old republican game tell people what they need to hear and when i’m in office i can do as i please remember the last 8 years bush got a blank check all of us was highly upset with 911 and we want the person that was responibly for it found and taken care of but what did bush he use this country hurt and dibeief to get a blank check to go into Iraq and sat up house to get the oil but its not prosper to this country bush and cheney are the ones who pockect are being line and we still don’t have Osama Bin Laden our troops have gave thiers lives and they have done thiers job in securing Iraq for thoses people so we need to move on to where Bin Laden and bring our people home if you think mccain is for you then you will bee in the same shape you you have been in for the last 8 years people wake up this is man who care about people not a black and white issue we have a lot of work to do look at this man [Obama] as a man not the color of his skin we have to pull together[JFK] once said Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country step up and do what is good for your country.
Hi Jill I haven’t been getting into the hot an heavy debate but have been doing my homework
quietly for my vote for Tuesday …. which will remain between my conscience and myself… I came across this in the Sunday Times today “Victory may prove to be the Easy Part”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article5063101.ece
nyoka – thanks for taking the time to read and comment. What you write makes sense. I hope people do step up.
Loraine – I agree – no question, and sadly I think it’s felt like that in this country since at least the 1960s. In some ways, I wonder to what extent that that is the nature of time – stability is a beautiful concept, but I don’t think we can do better than it being relative.
Nyokadavis, it is funny that you feel it necessary to leave comments bashing our republican canidate for president. You don’t even have the intelligence to use punctuation in that oh so meaningful blog of yours. If you had half a brain in your head you would know that John McCain and George Bush did not vote the same on a majority of issues. Barack Obama didn’t even have the experience to vote. You won’t vote for Obama because you are aware of what he stands for, you will vote for him because he is black. I hope he gets elected and screws up America for all of us, then each and every person who decided it would be a good idea to put him in the white house can feel like a complete and total idiot.
Nov4,2008 is tomorrow and you have your chance to cast your vote for change forget the joe the plummber who wasn’t someone staring his own business who gave mccain campaign$100.00 mccain need Ohio don’t let him use you about how much he care about you what he won’t tell you is if he’s elected he will raise taxes but it will be on the middle class and down the rich will get richer and the middle classand below will get poorer he had 26 years to speake for you listen him and listen to what he won’t tell you he will keep spending millions of dollars in iraq where we don’t need to our troops did thiers jobs they took at saddan and tturn the country back over to the people they have money but they keep putting our money into iraq bush and cheney want to go into iraq so they could make money off thiers company halber and they will be setting pretty when they leave office mccain intend on keeping our troops in harms way because he already said he never like a war he didn’t love and he got there blessing bush and cheney because they know he will keep on with the same old same old and Ohio will be in worseshape then it already is he needs you for his own selfess reason he has put in your mind that Sen.Obama will raise taxes yes he will but on thoses who can afford thiers taxes to be raise we have to built from the ground up all thoses who have business that ship jobs oversea will not get a taxes cut we need our jobs here and why do they send thiers jobs oversea cheap labor they rather do that then to pay you the people of Ohio the money you deserve wake up Ohio he planted joe the no plummber there to ask Sen.Obama that question this man knew he would benifit him but he kept on with this and mccain and his sisde kick palin as going joe the plummber”””””””” and he has not told you anything differnet let pull together as a country and elected Sen.Obama and i want to share this with you this from the late[RFK]Some people look at things and say why and I look at things and say why not so when go to the polls tomorrow vote for Sen.Obama for change.